Friday, April 24, 2009
Yen / Dollar -- A Technical Look
The $/Yen chart and momentum indicators suggest that the dollar bounce against the yen is ending if not over -- no guarantees as you know and any bets you make are your own responsibility. The dollar should broach the lows set in the mid 1990s but the ultimate downside is as yet indeterminate. Because the forwards are pretty flat relative to spot, thanks to effective zero interest rates in both the U.S. and Japan the spot and the forward are pretty close making it less expensive to bet on a dollar decline than it used to be. To see Yen rally past 80 by September might be a fundamental shock to some (not me) but not a technical one.