Steve Blitz Morning Notes

Looking at Control Retail Sales - sales less building materials, motor vehicles & parts, gasoline stations -- it appears that the downside momentum has slowed. The year-over-year comparisons should certainly start to look better since June 08 was last year's peak in sales because of the Bush rebates. (see chart). Current level of activity is nothing to write home about but there are enough other indicators of slight upticks in business activity to suggest that upside momentum in retail sales is more likely than not in the second half of this year.