I know that most readers are not exactly enamored of using technical analysis as a guide to where prices are going. After all, the original drive behind the efficient market theory was to discredit technical analysis. That history is expertly recalleded in
Justin Fox's wonderful new book "Myth of the Rational Market." From a personal standpoint, watching the ebb and flow of how people are spending their money instead of their opinions has more often given a true picture of where prices were going than, say, a reading the fundamental data.
My own technical view has been bullish on the 10-year, at least back to 3.0%, and after yields ran up to the top of their current channel (see chart of 60-minute bars) they are turning down, the short-term cycle is turning down and the RSI has broken below 50. None of this is a guarantee and unforeseen shocks (are there any others?) can turn market sentiment around in a hurry. But as of now, there are more buyers than sellers.
No comments:
Post a Comment