Steve Blitz Morning Notes

Last Friday I wrote that the August Employment data were better but not good and that there is still a long way to go before hiring turns positive and the Fed thinks about heading for the exits. Today's Employment Outlook Survey by Manpower only underscores my view and suggests that the shorter end of the Treasury curve should be flatter still.

The survey reveals that the employers expect a net decrease in the rate of hiring, quite weaker than the survey results from last quarter and compared with one year ago. In fact, the -3% reported is the lowest level since the survey began in 1962. Every region of the country will be hiring less, the worst being the Northeast and the South, registering 0%, is the best. The table below shows the breakdown by industry -- all are dropping save for education and health services.