Count me among those that believe the downturn is ending -- not done but ending. But you can also count me among those that believe the coming upturn will look nothing like the upturns in evidence since 1982. Debt burdens will weigh on household spending and the lack of consumer demand will keep corporate spending and hiring in check. It is also important to remember that the markets are returning to some "normalcy" because the Fed is still holding this thing together with its alphabet soup of programs to backstop the capital markets. The need for these programs is abating but nevertheless still needed.
All this is preamble to a chart that Jeffrey Rosenberg at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Research made showing where investment grade corporate spreads are relative to their cyclical narrows in May 2007 -- broken down by industry sector. The chart is reproduced below, for the whole article you need to contact Mr. Rosenberg or your BAC/MER salesperson. I think market participants are pricing some of these sectors a bit too expensive -- their optimism is bound for disappointment.
It's more psychosomatic than economic. Most Americans are waiting to see if it is the real recovery before they commit to big ticket items. Anyway, most Americans are more active and spend more money during the warm months. In July the spend money on charcoal and gas for vacation trips. In January the spend much more on heating their homes. The critical months to watch will be September and October. Happy days aren't here yet.
ReplyDeleteDanny L. McDaniel
Lafayette, Indiana
it all depends how you define happy. if you mean the 80s and 90s recoveries, forget it. a long slog is what's coming.
ReplyDeletethank you for taking the time comment.
hi
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